Bertha Safely at Sea

I will begin all my summer hurricane blogs with the official link from the NHC (aka Hurricane Center). Weather fans should bookmark this all year long.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

What my blog will attempt to do is to translate the data from NHC into your everyday life. From impacts on the Grand Strand to our chances of seeing fringe effects, my blog will go the next step beyond the NHC.

Here’s an example.

Bertha was christened a bouncing baby tropical storm over the holiday weekend, and then grew to hurricane strength on Sunday. Since she was thousands of miles and more than a week away from getting anywhere close to a populated region, she did not warrant any mention.

Now however, Bertha is close enough to the Leeward Islands (St Lucia, St Martin, St. Thomas etc) to garner our attention.

Bertha is predicted by the experts at the NHC to pass safely to the north of the Islands early this week on a course that also misses Puerto Rico and Hispaniola by more than 600 miles. The only effects these tropical paradises will feel will be some rough surf.

By late week, Bertha should be turning to the north some one thousand miles east of the US mainland. This projected NHC track steers Bertha away from the USA and perhaps threatens Bermuda toward the weekend.

So the early call is for some rough surf and rip currents at the Myrtle Beach Grand Strand this weekend, but no direct effects from Bertha. That is unlike Big Bad Bertha of 1996 notoriety, and I will recount her legacy after dinner as I add to my blog.

1996 AND BERTHA

In the summer of 1996, an active hurricane season had an early start when Bertha formed close to Africa in the distant eastern Atlantic just after the July 4th holiday. She then motored steadily westward and kissed just north of Puerto Rico by the 9th before eyeing the Bahamas and Carolina coastline by July 10-12.

Hurricane warnings were posted in much of the coastal Carolinas including Myrlte Beach. Bertha gave the Myrtle Beach Grand Strand a glancing blow with tropical Storm force winds and heavy seas. A direct strike from a 100 mile per hour tempest occured near Wilmington NC on a piece of coastline between Topsail and Wrightsville Beaches.

I recall tourists being sent inland for a day as Bertha passed, then it was "South Carolina again open for business" the next day. In Wilmington, the cleanup took a week.

Bertha was the strongest early season hurricane to strike the US in many years (since Alma in 1966). That factoid is worth a closer inspection in years to come since on a globally warmed planet, one would expect to see stronger hurricanes earlier in the season. If the planet is indeed warming due to greenhouse gases, we should see a definite spike up in strong early season hurricanes in the next 50 years.