12 AM Addition
Winds in the upper atmosphere are howling tonight with speeds of 50 miles per hour as low as 5000 feet overhead. So when thunderstorms crossing the Mississippi and Lower Ohio River arrive near dawn, they should be able to pull those strong winds down to the ground. So I would expect a round of high wind thundersqualls to pass from 5-8 AM.
Since there is even a chance we will be placed under a Tornado Watch overnight, if you live in Ohio or Northern Kentucky put your weather radio alert button on and update with Marina first thing in the morn!
High Water Risk Assessment
When I woke up on Tuesday to a 60 degree temperature, I naturally thought 70 was in the bag! But before we could break the all time record high for the day, skies turned dark and ominous as a line of gusty showers swooped in from the north. Air temperatures cooled from the mid to upper 60s back into the 50s during the rsin.
I watched those threatening clouds with keen interest during my 3 mile morning walk. By noon in Huntington, the heavens opened up, though this weakening line of squalls only mustered a quarter of an inch of water in Collis P’s hometown and less than one tenth of an inch in Charleston.
Turns out these dying showers had soaked much of the Buckeye State in the morning with an inch of rain water in the Zaleski and Shawnee State Forests. Suburban Cincinnati picked up 2 inches of rain with mudslides and stream overflow reported.
Now, my expectation is that this favored zone for heavy rain will jump past our region and affect Northern Ohio and Pennsylvania next. If that occurs, our region will get a soaking downpour as the next cold front passes thru, but flooding will be avoided.
As a precaution though, given the sopping wet Ohio ground, a Flood Watch has been posted for all of Southern Ohio and Kentucky and West Virginia counties that border the Ohio River. If these new cold front generated rains showcase a period of training showers (several cells marching or training over the same real estate), then localized high water would be possible. We will keep you posted.
By the way, my winter forecast made last October called for 12”-15” of rain water this season (a 33%-66% surplus compared to normal). So far, that forecast looks golden as by this time on Wednesday, I expect we will be in the 11” and counting range. This forecast came courtesy of the winter lass nicknamed La Nina (cooler than normal Pacific Ocean waters).