Election Day Winner May Hinge on Weather

Ohio Primary and Weather

I came down with a touch of Bronchitis this weekend, so I am sort of “playing from behind” with this week’s postings.

Of course the eyes of the political world are focused on Ohio this Tuesday for what Tim Russert and other political pundits say will be the defining moment of the Democratic primary season. With Barack Obama riding a wave of 11 straight primary victories, it was clear that Hillary Clinton’s bid for the White House could end tonight if she does not win in the Buckeye State.

That said, the weather is likely playing a role in reducing voter turnout. This morning’s heavy rains across most of Ohio would have made traveling to the polls “inconvenient” for many. Even sleet and ice in Northern Ohio were to be contended with from Cleveland and Akron to Toledo where sidewalks were icy and roads slick in spots.

Fortunately a break has developed during the late morning hours thru the Eastern 2/3 of Ohio including our region. That means voters have a window of opportunity to head to the polls before the next wave of rain arrives.

Trying to figure out who might benefit or be hurt by poor weather is always a crap shoot. So I spoke to Dr. Robert Behrman, Chair of Marshall’s Political Science Department for help. “So far this season, we have seen Obama backers come out in large numbers regardless of weather. Take the Iowa Caucuses, Barack’s supporters came from the young and minorities”. Since these groups do not have a strong track record of turning out, the Iowa caucuses were eye opening. Barack’s fans were more zealous!

Dr. Behrman reminded me that Hillary’s strength is in the middle and working class especially card carrying union members with High Income people tending to favor Obama. That may be why we saw more Clinton campaigning locally than Obama stumping.

The polls are open until 7:30 in Ohio and by sundown, the drying of afternoon will turn wet and windy again. Since those union members may have skipped voting in the bad weather this morning, they will have to muster the courage of their convictions to head out in the second round of rain to assure Hillary of victory.

Hillary has a 5 or 6 point lead in the polls heading into today, and since the rain would not have been continuous, I will predict a 50% turnout today (the national pundits expected a 55%). The 5% reduction in turnout, would lead to a tighter win for Hillary Clinton. I will take a stab at a 3 point win for Senator Clinton.

Late night update, you hit my blog 22,000 times in February, a very satisfying number! Thank you. I guess a big snowstorm would skew those numbers even higher in March.

Glad you said that since my trusty European model is saying we get a heavy snowstorm this weekend. Snow lovers, a bit of caution is recommended since both the Canadian and American models say we have a snow like we had last week. Time will tell, but one thing for sure, the hits go up when I mention snow.

I for one am rooting against a snowstorm since it is Home and Garden weekend here in Huntington.

Check out the latest from the Euro and skiers, remember It's almost heaven season at the ski lodges where bet you Snowshoe and Canaan get more than a FOOT OF SNOW!


Look where the big bullseye is centered and the number 992. That's a developing snowstorm IF IT VERIFYS AS TRUE. We shall see.

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