New flood risk Wednesday

In a winter known for rainy and mild weather, Wednesday's weather will not disappoint. More rain means a new flood risk, chief meteorologist Tony Cavalier says.


  • Flood Watch pertinent Wednesday night-Thursday AM
  • Brief strong winds late night
  • Valentine’s Day dusting and black ice

Another glum winter day is in the books. The day long overcast spitting mist and lowering the ceilings to produce fog and gloom over hill and dale. While rainfalls were manageable in the one quarter to three quarter of an inch range, the sopping wet ground could not soak in any new water. This kept many small streams running high with nuisance spillage onto rural winding roads along the Mud River through Lincoln County and the Twelve Pole Creek downstream from Beech Fork Lake and dam.

Now for the overnight and the first half of Wednesday, we will sit in a quiet zone of weather with nothing more than some spotty mist and fog.

By Wednesday afternoon, a new slug of mainly light rain will approach from Bluegrass country. Rainfall totals before midnight apt to be very manageable.

However late at night, mainly around and after midnight into Thursday morning, a new surge of rain propelled by briefly strong wind gusts will race through the region. This shot of rain water will deposit a quick 1 inch on average onto the saturated soil. The result will be flooding of streets in poor drainage areas and likely more small stream overflow.

In addition, the brief window of strong winds with gusts to 40 miles per hour may muster enough might to knock down some trees weakened by the winter long onslaught.

New mud and rock slides will be a continued concern.

Finally a rapid temperature fall Thursday night into Friday will pose the risk of black ice. While main roads and downtown streets will have long since dried out, rural winding roads in the hills will have water draining downgrade resulting in patches of ice. A dusting from snow showers would follow, likely hiding the black ice in spots in time for a frigid Valentine’s Friday.